The exit path of a Markov chain with rare transitions
ESAIM: Probability and Statistics, Tome 1 (1997), pp. 95-144 
@article{PS_1997__1__95_0,
     author = {Catoni, Olivier and Cerf, Rapha\"el},
     title = {The exit path of a {Markov} chain with rare transitions},
     journal = {ESAIM: Probability and Statistics},
     pages = {95--144},
     year = {1997},
     publisher = {EDP Sciences},
     volume = {1},
     mrnumber = {1440079},
     zbl = {0869.60063},
     language = {en},
     url = {https://www.numdam.org/item/PS_1997__1__95_0/}
}
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Catoni, Olivier; Cerf, Raphaël. The exit path of a Markov chain with rare transitions. ESAIM: Probability and Statistics, Tome 1 (1997), pp. 95-144. https://www.numdam.org/item/PS_1997__1__95_0/

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